Using the statistical technique of fuzzy clustering, regimes of inflation and unemployment are explored for the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany between 1871 and 2009. We identify for each country three distinct regimes in inflation/unemployment space. There is considerable...

We propose a new method for medium-term forecasting using exogenous information. We first show how a shifting-mean autoregressive model can be used to describe characteristic features in inflation series. This implies that we decompose the inflation process into a slowly moving nonstationary...

This paper empirically compares sticky-price and sticky-information Phillips curves considering inflation dynamics in six countries (US, UK, Germany, France, Canada, and Japan). We evaluate the models‘ abilities to match empirical second moments of inflation. Under baseline calibrations, the...

The former Prime Minister's review of party-funding reforms, chaired by Sir Hayden Phillips, reported in March 2007. It was followed in June 2008 by a White Paper from the Ministry of Justice. This article considers these proposals in the context of both previous reforms in Britain and trends in...

The reduced-form correlation between inflation and measures of real activity has changed substantially for the main developed economies over the post-WWII period. In this paper we attempt to describe the observed inflation dynamics in the United Kingdom, the United States and the euro area with...

A model of nominal labor-price dynamics is derived from the choice of an efficient strategy to adjust wages for inflation. The model, named the rational-arrangements Phillips curve, identifies a central role for catch-up to price inflation that has already occurred and a more latent role for...

It has been widely argued that inflation persistence since WWII has been widespread and durable and that it can only be accounted for by models with a high degree of nominal rigidity. We examine UK post-war data and find that the varying persistence it reveals is largely due to changing monetary...

Previous tests for convexity in the Phillips curve have been biased because researchers have employed filtering techniques for the NAIRU that have been fundamentally inconsistent with the existence of convexity. This paper places linear and nonlinear models of the Phillips curve on an equal...

We explore two issues triggered by the global financial crisis. First, in most advanced countries, output remains far below the pre-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a breakdown of the relation...