Although there have been a large number of empirical studies of the demand for international reserves, there have not been many successful demonstrations that deviations of the actual stock of reserves from the target level defined by the demand function trigger a process of adjustment. This...

Although there have been a large number of empirical studies of the demand for international reserves, there have not been many successful demonstrations that deviations of the actual stock of reserves from the target level defined by the demand function trigger a process of adjustment. This...

A number of recent empirical studies have rejected the hypothesis that forward exchange rates are unbiased forecasts of future spot exchange rates. This result implies that there have been opportunities for speculative profit during the post Bretton Woods period. Observers of the floating rate...

The hypothesis that forward prices are the best unbiased forecast of future spot prices is often presented in the economic and financial analysis of futures markets. This paper considers the hypothesis independently of its implications for rational expectations or market efficiency and in order...

This paper presents the results of a post-sample simulation of a speculative strategy using a portfolio of foreign currency forward contracts.The main new features of the speculative strategy are (a)the use of Kalman filters to update the forecasting equation, (b) the allowance for...

This paper addresses the question of reform of the international monetary system. It starts by identifying the sources of disenchantment with the performance of the present regime of floating exchange rates and by outlining the reasons for the lack of convergence of views about the...

This paper deals with the relations among international liquidity,the exchange-rate regime and the effectiveness of monetary policy. The first part of the paper contains an empirical study of the demand for international reserves. It is shown that (i) reserve holdings are a stable function of a...

This paper argues that macroeconomic policies for open economies differ, in fundamentally important ways, from the corresponding policies for closed economies.The openness of the economy imposes constraints on the effectiveness and proper conduct of macroeconomic policies and it also provides...