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The composite index of leading indicators is found to be a valuable tool for predicting not only the direction but also … index as a predictor of (1) business cycle turning points as dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research and (2 …) quantitative changes in real GNP and the composite index of coincident indicators. Specific smoothing rules are identified which …
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S&P 500 index and the detection of End-of-Bubble signals with their corresponding confidence levels. We use monthly S …
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