Controlling for numerous attributes tied to default and priced asset risk, including yield, credit spread, bond rating, and maturity, we find that a corporate bond’s book value divided by its market price strongly predicts its return. Bonds with the 20% highest “bond book-to-market ratios”...

We document that the first and third cross-sectional moments of corporate bond returns significantly and positively predict future stock market returns both in- and out-of-sample. The predictability emerges from informed bond trading and gradual diffusion of information. Particularly, the...