The size premium, defined as the outperformance of equities of small and medium-sized companies compared with the shares of large companies, is subject to strong cyclical fluctuations over time. This study examines the predictability of this premium for the Swiss stock market. The forecasts used...

A Monetary Conditions Index (MCI), a weighted average of the short-term real interest rate and the real exchange rate, is a commonly used indicator of aggregate demand conditions. In-sample evidence for the US, the euro area, Japan and the UK suggests that a Financial Conditions Index (FCI),...

There appears to be a consensus that the recent instability in global financial markets may be attributable in part to the failure of financial modeling. More specifically, current risk models have failed to properly assess the risks associated with large adverse stock price behavior. In this...

A large part of the current debate on US stock price behavior concentrates on the question of whether stock prices are driven by fundamentals or by non-fundamental factors. In this paper we put forward the hypothesis that a present value model with time-varying expected returns provides an...

This paper attempts to answer the question whether the threat of systemic risk in banking exists only on a national or on a European level. Following De Nicolo and Kwast (2001), mean rolling-window correlations between bank stock returns are used as a measure for interdependencies among European...

Inspired by the theory of social imitation (Weidlich 1970) and its adaptation to financial markets by the Coherent Market Hypothesis (Vaga 1990), we present a behavioral model of stock prices that supports the overreaction hypothesis. Using our dynamic stock price model, we develop a two factor...

Die internationalen Börsen verzeichnen seit Jahren eine Hausse. Wie haben sich die deutschen Aktienmärkte langfristig entwickelt? Welche Bedeutung haben die verschiedenen Aktienindizes?

Die Aktienkurse eilen derzeit von einem Rekord zum nächsten. Dieser schon lange anhaltende Höhenflug der Kurse ist mit einem im historischen Vergleich hohen Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis verbunden. Handelt es sich um eine spekulative Blase? Welche Folgen hätte ein plötzlicher Kursrückgang für...

Die New Economy hatte zu einem steilen Aufstieg der Aktienmärkte geführt, dem mittlerweile Ernüchterung gefolgt ist. Wie kam es zu dem Höhenflug? Ist mit der New Economy eine neue Ära ohne Konjunkturzyklen und Inflation verbunden? Welche Folgen hat die Verbreitung der neuen Informations-...

Technical trading strategies assume that past changes in prices help predict future changes. This makes sense if the past price trend reflects fundamental information that has not yet been fully incorporated in the current price. However, if the past price trend only reflects temporary pricing...