models. We propose a new method, called a regression tournament, to assess the utility of forecasting models and taking these …

importantly to the fact that we have yet to develop accurate forecasting models. Animals, however, have been forced through …

This paper uses a new variable based on estimates of insider trading to forecast the outcome of horse races. We base … presence of insiders leads opening prices to deviate from true winning probabilities. Under these circumstances, forecasting of …

This paper considers the impact of insider trading on forecasting in a betting market when prices are set by bookmakers …, forecasting of race outcomes should take into account an estimate of the extent of insider trading per horse. We show that the …

After a comparative study of the Lee-Carter forecasting method and looking into the direct extrapolation of mortality … short-run efficiency is improved by building the forecast on data from the most recent periods of age/sex-specific duration …

yield curve where the informational advantage exists and transmits the superior forecasting ability to all remaining yields …, without the need to explicitly model it. We document that anchoring delivers large and significant gains in forecast accuracy … are widely adopted by financial and policy institutions for forecasting the term structure of interest rates. …