activity declined remarkably, relative to naive forecasts, since the mid-1980s. This break down in forecast ability appears to …

We study 30 vintages of FRB/US, the principal macro model used by the Federal Reserve Board staff for forecasting and …

We propose a theoretical framework for assessing whether a forecast model estimated over one period can provide good … forecasts over a subsequent period. We formalize this idea by defining a forecast breakdown as a situation in which the out …, which is valid under general conditions, can be used not only to detect past forecast breakdowns but also to predict future …

This paper considers Bayesian regression with normal and doubleexponential priors as forecasting methods based on large …

expectations, the Consensus Forecast survey and the European Commission Household survey, a battery of tests is applied to …

depreciation and without economic slowdown. Finally, some cases involved a crisis-like combination of a severe slowdown and a …

This paper explores the role of model and vintage combination in forecasting, with a novel approach that exploits the … information contained in the revision history of a given variable. We analyse the forecast performance of eleven widely used … forecast accuracy and precision. The novelty of our study relies on the interpretation of the vintages of a real time data base …