considering standard bivariate forecasting models, factor models, simple combination forecasts as well as trivariate two …-pillar Phillips Curve forecasting models using both ex-post revised and real-time data. The results suggest that the predictive … ability of money-based forecasts relative to a simple random walk benchmark model was high at medium-term forecasting horizons …

This paper evaluates how well sectoral stock prices forecast future economic activity compared to traditional … prices in general provide more accurate forecasts than traditional asset price measures across all forecast horizons. …

of country-specific determinants. This paper shows empirically the superiority of direct forecasting methods, in which …

Euro area GDP and components are nowcast and forecast one quarter ahead. Based on a dataset of 163 series comprising … Giannone, Reichlin and Small (2006) and Banbura and Rünstler (2007). An out-of-sample forecast comparison exercise is also … carried out for each component and GDP directly. The forecast performance is found to vary widely across components. Two …

-for breaks in forecast accuracy and off-model judgment. Conclusions reached are that simple mechanical residual adjustments have … a significant impact of forecasting accuracy irrespective of the model in use, ostensibly due to the presence of breaks …

the forecast performance of a large set of monetary and nonmonetary indicators. The forecast evaluation results suggest … benchmark, especially at short forecast horizons. Nevertheless, monetary indicators are found to contain useful information for …

This paper investigates whether information from foreign yield curves helps forecast domestic yield curves out …-of-sample. A nested methodology to forecast yield curves in domestic and international settings is applied on three major countries …