Factor based forecasting has been at the forefront of developments in the macroeconometric forecasting literature in … number of factors in the forecasting regression, the benefits of combining factor-based forecasts and the choice of the …

, first, at ranking various forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy and, second, at checking whether methods …Forecasting the world economy is a difficult task given the complex interrelationships within and across countries …. This paper proposes a number of approaches to forecast short-term changes in selected world economic variables and aims …

and elasticities commonly used for forecasting or cyclically adjusting government revenues and taking into account … same exercise using alternative tax base proxies, either taken from forecasting models or on the basis of our knowledge of …

We propose a new method for multivariate forecasting which combines Dynamic Factor and multivariate GARCH models. The … asset returns. Our model outperforms the benchmarks in fore-casting the inflation level, its conditional variance and the …

the country-specific CLI with a leading indicator of the external environment and employing forecast combination … find evidence that the CLI encompasses useful information for forecasting industrial production, particularly over horizons …. At the same time, we find indications that the forecast accuracy has declined over time for several countries. Augmenting …

To forecast an aggregate, we propose adding disaggregate variables, instead of combining forecasts of those … disaggregates or forecasting by a univariate aggregate model. New analytical results show the effects of changing coefficients, mis …-specification, estimation uncertainty and mis-measurement error. Forecastorigin shifts in parameters affect absolute, but not relative, forecast …

data than simpler models including the random walk. The traditional test based on forecasting ability is applied as well …. The asset pricing model proves to have better forecast accuracy in case of some exchange rates and forecast horizons than …

In this paper we compare the in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecasting performance of no-arbitrage quadratic and … fail to identify one single-best forecasting model class. …