This text provides clear information and guidance on how to do scenario planning to support strategy and public policy. The book describes the Oxford Scenario Planning Approach (OSPA), an intellectually rigorous and practical methodolgy.

Uncertainty is a precondition for our choices to have meaning, but we like to think we have adaptive capacities to deal with the surprises and opportunities uncertainty entails. The turbulent field was defined in 1965 by Emery and Trist as the most uncertain causal texture a system could be in,...

Uncertainty is a precondition for our choices to have meaning, but we like to think we have adaptive capacities to deal with the surprises and opportunities uncertainty entails. The turbulent field was defined in 1965 by Emery and Trist as the most uncertain causal texture a system could be in,...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore extant distinctions between plausibility and probability in scenario planning and re-frame the either/or stance in the literature within a broader set of methodological choice possibilities. Design/methodology/approach – The paper surveys the...