This paper develops parameter instability and structural change tests within predictive regressions for economic systems governed by persistent vector autoregressive dynamics. Specifically, in a setting where all – or a subset – of the variables may be fractionally integrated and the...

This paper is concerned with problem of variable selection and forecasting in the presence of parameter instability. There are a number of approaches proposed for forecasting in the presence of breaks, including the use of rolling windows or exponential down-weighting. However, these studies...

This paper addresses tests for structural change in a weakly dependent time series regression. The cases of full structural change and partial structural change are considered. Heteroskedasticity-autocorrelation (HAC) robust Wald tests based on nonparametric covariance matrix estimators are...