This paper argues that forecast estimators should minimise the loss function in a statistical, rather than deterministic, way. We introduce two new elements into the classical econometric analysis: a subjective guess on the variable to be forecasted and a probability reflecting the confidence...

Under inflation targeting inflation exhibits negative serial correlation in the United Kingdom, and little or no persistence in Canada, Sweden and New Zealand, and estimates of the indexation parameter in hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curves are either equal to zero, or very low, in all...

We estimate a two-country Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model for the US and the euro area including relevant housing market features and examine the monetary policy implications of housing-related disturbances. In particular, we derive the optimal monetary policy cooperation consistent...

The paper considers a SUTSE model embedded in a dynamic framework to estimate an energy cost share model for the Italian economy in an evolutionary environment. This is achieved by allowing stochastic seasonal and trend components in the long-run specification and constructing an error...

Positive response density estimation from CV interval data affords efficiency gains which must be weighed against the risk of introducing potential bias during questions iteration. This study examines the effect of eliciting a third response on a set of often-used welfare measures derived in a...

This paper considers the estimation of binary choice panel data models with discrete endogenous regressors. We present a switching probit model which accounts for selectivity bias as well as for other forms of time invariant unobserved heterogeneity. Individual effects are allowed to be...

The Dichotomous Choice Contingent Valuation Method can be used either in the single or double bound formulation. The former is easier to implement, while the latter is known to be more efficient. We analyse the bias of the ML estimates produced by either model, and the gain in efficiency...

We derive the asymptotic sampling distribution of various estimators frequently used to order distributions in terms of poverty, welfare and inequality. This includes estimators of most of the poverty indices currently in use, as well as estimators of the curves used to infer stochastic...

Survey under-coverage of top incomes leads to bias in survey-based estimates of overall income inequality. Using income tax record data in combination with survey data is a potential approach to address the problem; we consider here the UK's pioneering "SPI adjustment" method that implements...

DSGE models are typically estimated assuming the existence of certain primal shocks that drive macroeconomic fluctuations. We analyze the consequences of estimating shocks that are "non-existent" and propose a method to select the primal shocks driving macroeconomic uncertainty. Forcing these...