Rational expectations as the standard solution concept for dynamic economic models leaves open two fundamental questions: (1) how can RE be attained if agents do not actually begin with RE?, and (2) which RE solution will the economy follow hen there are multiple RE solutions? Expectational...

We examine local stability under learning of stationary Markov sunspot equilibria (SSEs) in a simply dynamic nonlinear model. Necessary and sufficient conditions for local convergence of a recursive learning algorithm to SSEs are shown to be given (generically) by expectational stability...

We examine global dynamics under infinite-horizon learning in New Keynesian models where monetary policy practices either pricelevel or nominal GDP targeting and compare these regimes to inflation targeting. These interest-rate rules are subject to the zero lower bound. Robustness of the three...

The financial liberalization in the four Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden) that took place mostly in the 1980s led to a major financial crisis in three of those countries. The crises in Finland, Norway, and Sweden are among the deepest financial crises in advanced market...

Expectations play a central role in modern macroeconomics. The econometric learning approach, in line with the cognitive consistency principle, models agents as forming expectations by estimating and updating subjective forecasting models in real time. This approach provides a stability test for...

We study a many-country endogenous growth model in which decisions about innovation and new investment are influenced by growth expectations. Adaptive learning dynamics determine the country-specific short-run transition paths. The countries differ in basic structural parameters and may impose...

Expectations play a central role in modern macroeconomics. The econometric learning approach, in line with the cognitive consistency principle, models agents as forming expectations by estimating and updating subjective forecasting models in real time. This approach provides a stability test for...

This chapter argues that traditional social programmes of the modern welfare state have concentrated on replacing the earnings which are not enjoyed by those without jobs.This offers an incentive to those capable of earning only very low wages to qualify for (higher) benefits by declining jobs...