We consider an endogenous growth model with international trade in complementary capital goods. The model possesses several distinct, balanced growth solutions, which we classify using stability under adaptive learning. Some of the equilibria can involve growth rates much higher than others. We...

We use a sample of 140 countries to study empirically how a country's characteristics are associated with its choice of an exchange rate regime. When countries are classified according to their current exchange rate arrangements, we observe that small countries with low diversification of...

This paper considers the Ricardian Equivalence proposition when expectations are not rational and are instead formed using adaptive learning rules. We show that Ricardian Equivalence continues to hold provided suitable additional conditions on learning dynamics are satis?fied. However, new cases...

The main proposals for the reform of payroll-based employers' social security contributions have been the (partial) replacement of the contribution by increased sales tax and the so called SII-contribution, in which the base would consist of the wage bill and the operating margin of the firm. In...

This paper deals with some aspects of the Finnish economic crisis in the 1990s by starting with a quick description of the main macroeconomic features of the crisis together with some empirical evidence on price and wage as well as interest rate determination. With these as a background a...

We develop a continuous-time stochastic growth model with recursive preferences, money and public debt. In equilibrium growth and inflation follow geometric Brownian motions, with parameters determined by solving a system of nonlinear equations. Permanent changes in government expenditures and...

A fundamentals based monetary policy rule, which would be the optimal monetary policy without commitment when private agents have perfectly rational expectations, is unstable if in fact these agents follow standard adaptive learning rules. This problem can be overcome if private expectations are...

We study a many-country endogenous growth model in which decisions about innovation and new investment are influenced by growth expectations. Adaptive learning dynamics determine the country-specific short-run transition paths. The countries differ in basic structural parameters and may impose...

Expectations play a central role in modern macroeconomics. The econometric learning approach, in line with the cognitive consistency principle, models agents as forming expectations by estimating and updating subjective forecasting models in real time. This approach provides a stability test for...