spread while the return-forecasting (risk premium) factor is extracted by imposing a single factor structure on the one …-sectional fit of the yield curve. Second, we find that financial shocks, either in the form of liquidity or risk premium shocks …

spread while the return-forecasting (risk premium) factor is extracted by imposing a single factor structure on the one …-sectional fit of the yield curve. Second, we find that financial shocks, either in the form of liquidity or risk premium shocks …

I provide evidence that risks in macroeconomic fundamentals contain valuable information about bond risk premia. I … extract factors from a set of quantile-based risk measures estimated for US macroeconomic variables and document that they … unemployment rate. In addition, factors provide information about bond risk premia variation that is largely unrelated to that …