We present extensive evidence that "Risk Premium" is strongly correlated with tail-risk skewness, but very little with volatility. We introduce a new, intuitive definition of skewness, and elicit a linear relationship between the Sharpe ratio of various risk premium strategies (Equity,...

We propose a simple framework to understand commonly observed crisis waves in macroeconomic Agent Based models, that is also relevant to a variety of other physical or biological situations where synchronization occurs. We compute exactly the phase diagram of the model and the location of the...

This paper is devoted to the important yet unexplored subject of crowding effects on market impact, that we call co-impact. Our analysis is based on a large database of metaorders by institutional investors in the U.S. equity market. We find that the market chiefly reacts to the net order flow...

Which level of inflation should Central Banks be targeting? We investigate this issue in the contextof a simplified Agent Based Model of the economy. Depending on the value of the parameters thatdescribe the behaviour of agents (in particular inflation anticipations), we find a rich variety...

We analyze a proprietary dataset of trades by a single asset manager, comparing their price impact with that of the trades of the rest of the market. In the context of a linear propagator model we find no significant difference between the two, suggesting that both the magnitude and time...

Financial time series exhibit two different type of non linear correlations: (i) volatility autocorrelations that have a very long range memory, on the order of years, and (ii) asymmetric return-volatility (or 'leverage') correlations that are much shorter ranged. Different stochastic volatility...

Synchronising a database of stock specific news with 5 years worth of order book data on 300 stocks, we show that abnormal price movements following news releases (exogenous) exhibit markedly different dynamical features from those arising spontaneously (endogenous). On aver- age, large...

The ability to learn from others (social learning) is often deemed a cause of human species success. But if social learning is indeed more efficient (whether less costly or more accurate) than individual learning, it raises the question of why would anyone engage in individual information...

We study the conditions under which input-output networks can dynamically attain competitive equilibrium, where markets clear and profits are zero. We endow a classical firm network model with simple dynamical rules that reduce supply/demand imbalances and excess profits. We show that the time...

Trust is a collective, self-fulfilling phenomenon that suggests analogies with phase transitions. We introduce a stylized model for the build-up and collapse of trust in networks, which generically displays a first order transition. The basic assumption of our model is that whereas trust begets...