This paper provides an answer to the question of how to improve the forecasting performance of a macro model to better account for economic developments and how to evaluate the forecasting uncertainty. The main tool in this assessment is stochastic simulation. Stochastic simulations in this...

This paper deals with the debt-growth relationship using several time-series tools. The idea is to find out whether the inverse relationship between these variable can be detected without imposing any functional forms for the estimating relationship and whether the relationship does indeed...

This paper contains a description of a small quarterly forecasting model for the Finnish economy. We evaluate the forecasting properties of the model by means of stochastic simulation involving both the endogenous and exogenous variables of the model. The simulations allow us to identify and...

The failure to predict the surge in inflation in 2021 raises questions about whether we are better equipped to anticipate a future decline in inflation. What tools do we intend to use for predicting the trajectory of inflation? Are we still primarily relying on survey data regarding inflation...

This paper examines the reasons for the declining path of inflation since the 1970s. In particular, it focusses on the role of globalization - covering both changes in the global market structure and technical and structural developments in trade and production. In addition, the paper deals with...

Työssä kuvataan Suomen Neuvostoliiton-viennin kehitystä sekä tarkastellaan markkinaosuusanalyysin avulla Suomen ja Suomen kannalta merkittävimpien OECD maiden vientimenestystä Neuvostoliiton markkinoilla. Markkinaosuusanalyysissä vientimenestys samaistetaan markkinaosuuden muutokseen...

This paper contains a description of a small quarterly model for the Finnish economy model (formerly, the QMED model).In addition to the basic features of this macroeconomic model, we report results from some stochastic simulations which illustrate the model's properties.Thus, the role of...