By endowing his agents with simple forecasting models, or representations, Woodford (1990) found that finite state Markov sunspot equilibria may be stable under learning. We show that common factor representations generalize to all sunspot equilibria the representations used by Woodford (1990)....

A striking implication of the replacement of adaptive expectations by Rational Expectations was the "Lucas Critique," which showed that expectation parameters, and endogenous variable dynamics, depend on policy parameters. We consider this issue from the vantage point of a bounded rationality,...

This is a revised and shortened version of Working Paper 2002-11. Commitment in monetary policy leads to equilibria that are superior to those from optimal discretionary policies. A number of interest rate reaction functions and instrument rules have been proposed to implement or approximate...

Commitment in monetary policy leads to equilibria that are superior to those from optimal discretionary policies. A number of interest rate reaction functions and instrument rules have been proposed to implement or approxmiate commitment policy. We assess these optimal reaction functions and...

A fundamentals based monetary policy rule, which would be the optimal monetary policy without commitment when private agents have perfectly rational expectations, is unstable if in fact these agents follow standard adaptive learning rules. This problem can be overcome if private expectations are...

The paper presents evidence on exchange rate pass-through and the "Fear of Floating" hypothesis before and after Inflation Targeting for a set of developed and emerging market economies. We use a structural VAR model to estimate the effect of depreciations on prices. The results support the view...

This paper aims at estimating the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) for the Czech Republic. The existing empirical literature does not come to a consensus about the degree of pass-through to Czech inflation. Since there is no unique approach regarding how to measure ERPT, we use various...

Monetary policy makers need to build two pillars for their inflation targeting strategy. Firstly, a methodology for producing the central forecast should be developed, since the whole decision process is more easily organised around a model forecast. Secondly, a methodology for dealing with...

This article addresses the role of the inflation target with respect to inflation expectations developments using the vector error correction (VECM) and block restriction vector autoregression (VAR) models, based on the monthly data of 1999-2007. The econometric analysis performed has not...

The existence of a stable demand for money is very important for the conduct of monetary policy even in this new era of inflation targeting. It is argued that previous work on the demand for money in New Zealand has been either not very satisfactory in a number of ways or outdated. This paper...