In this paper, we document evidence that downside betas tend to comove more than upside betas during a financial crisis, but upside betas tend to comove more than the downside betas during financial booms. We find that the asymmetry between Downside-Beta Comovement and Upside-Beta Comovement is...

Oil price changes fail to predict asset returns because they are too noisy. We construct an oil trend factor that filters out noise and provide evidence that it predicts bond risk premia well. This result holds in developed and emerging countries, both in sample and out of sample. Notably, the...

Pastor and Stambaugh (2012) demonstrate that from a forward-looking perspective, stocks are more volatile in the long run than they are in the short run. We investigate how the economic constraint of non-negative equity premia aspects predictive variance. When investors expect non-negative...

We introduce a novel quantitative methodology to detect real estate bubbles and forecast their critical end time, which we apply to the housing markets of China's major cities. Building on the Log-Periodic Power Law Singular (LPPLS) model of self-reinforcing feedback loops, we use the quantile...