We apply well-known results of the econometric learning literature to the Mortensen-Pissarides real business cycle model. Agents can always learn the unique rational expectations equilibrium (REE), for all possible well-defined sets of parameter values, by using the minimum-state-variable...

This article assesses the role of segregation in explaining gender employment gaps through the United Kingdom's Great Recession and its subsequent period of recovery and fiscal austerity. The analysis reaffirms that gender employment gaps in the UK respond to the business cycle, and it evaluates...

Starting from an improved understanding of the relationship between gender labour market stocks and the business cycle, we analyse the contributing role of flows in the US and UK. Focusing on the post 2008 recession period, the subsequent greater rise in male unemployment can mostly be explained...

Using employer-employee panel data, we provide a novel set of facts on how real wages and working hours within jobs respond to the business cycle. In contrast to previous studies, our data enable us to address the cyclical composition of jobs. We show that UK firms were able to respond to the...

This study reports novel facts about the UK gender pay gap. We use a representative, longitudinal and linked employer-employee dataset for 2002-16. Men's average log hourly wage was 22 points higher than women's in this period. We find 16% of this raw pay gap is accounted for by estimated...

Using a linked employer-employee dataset, we present new evidence on the role of firms in British wage inequality trends over the past two decades. The extent of differences between firms in the average wages they paid did not drive these trends. Between 1996 and 2005, greater wage variance...

This study analyses point forecasts of exact scoreline outcomes for football matches in the English Premier League. These forecasts were made for distinct competitions and originally judged differently. We compare these with implied probability forecasts using bookmaker odds and a crowd of...

Competition is often judged by official decision makers, such as judges, juries, and referees. Systematic bias in those judgements, frequently related to social identities, may have undesirable effects. We investigate whether raising awareness can correct or even reverse such bias. We use a...

The COVID-19 pandemic has induced worldwide natural experiments on the effects of crowds. We exploit one of these experiments that took place over several countries in almost identical settings: professional football matches played behind closed doors within the 2019/20 league seasons. We find...