When variables included in an OLS regression are stationary, conventional statistical measures such as t-statistics and R2's - in addition to a priori information from economic theory - are the standard indicators used to assess the performance of the hypothesized model. However, if the...

This paper estimates growth rates of quantity and trade variables of 32 primary commodities for the periods 1970-1980, 1980-1990, and 1990-1999 through log-linear trend regressions. The properties of the models were assessed through conventional and stationarity statistics. Based on Monte Carlo...

This paper examines the degree to which world price signals have been transmitted into domestic prices for eight countries and ten commodities, a total of 31 country/commodity pairs. The main characteristic of these countries was that they all undertook substantial policy reforms during the...

During the 1960s, Uganda was the largest cotton producer in sub-Saharan Africa. Attempts to revive the sector following its demise in the 1970s were unsuccessful in the 1980s and more effective in the 1990s. However, there is a sense that it still lags behind its full potential. Low quality of...

After experiencing a boom during the mid-1990s, the performance of Uganda's coffee industry has been disappointing. Most existing analysis sees the sector's problems as quality deterioration, a poor marketing position in the global market, a weak regulatory framework, and poor infrastructure....

The authors examine the price linkages among polyester (the dominant chemical fiber), cotton (the dominant natural fiber), and crude oil (the dominant energy commodity), based on monthly data between 1980 and 2002. The modeling framework incorporates several aspects of the unit root econometrics...

The value of world cotton production in 2000-01 has been estimated at about $20 billion, down from $35 billion in 1996-97 when cotton prices were 50 percent higher. Although cotton's share in world merchandise trade is insignificant (about 0.12 percent), it is very important to a number of...