This paper studies the performance of alternative prediction models for conflict. The analysis contrasts the performance of conventional approaches based on predicted probabilities generated by binary response regressions and random forests with two unconventional classification algorithms. The...

This paper studies the performance of alternative prediction models for conflict. The analysis contrasts the performance of conventional approaches based on predicted probabilities generated by binary response regressions and random forests with two unconventional classification algorithms. The...

This paper studies the features of sectoral economic downturns in agriculture, industry and services sectors using an extensive database of 127 countries for the period 1970-2013. Our analysis shows that there are stark differences in the frequency and severity of economic downturns across...

The history of Iraq over the past decade is a stark example of increasing vertical and horizontal inequalities, preceding and following a period of violent conflict. This paper uses a cross-section of individual-level nationally representative survey data to study relationships around how adults...

The history of Iraq over the past decade is a stark example of increasing vertical and horizontal inequalities, preceding and following a period of violent conflict. This paper uses a cross-section of individual-level nationally representative survey data to study relationships around how adults...

I investigate the theoretical and empirical effects of increased law enforcement on the equilibrium level of bribes for the case of Albania during the period of 2005-2010. My paper centers on "harassment" bribes, which consist of payments for public services that by law should be free. I model...

I investigate the theoretical and empirical effects of increased law enforcement on the equilibrium level of bribes for the case of Albania during the period of 2005-2010. My paper centers on "harassment" bribes, which consist of payments for public services that by law should be free. I model...

Many highly-disaggregated cross-country indicators of institutional quality and the business environment have been developed in recent years. The promise of these indicators is that they can be used to identify specific reform priorities that policymakers and aid donors can target in their...

A potential concern with survey-based data on corruption is that respondents may not be fully candid in their responses to sensitive questions. If reticent respondents are less likely to admit to involvement in corrupt acts, and if the proportion of reticent respondents varies across groups of...