Output collapses, and crises are a fact of life. Severe economic downturns occur periodically, and have grave consequences on the poor. The authors propose a new measurement for economic downside risk, and severity: Growth at risk. Similar to the concept of Value at Risk in finance, Growth at...

China's performance in economic growth, and poverty reduction has been remarkable. There is an ongoing debate about whether this growth is mainly driven by productivity, or factor accumulation. But few past studies have incorporated information on China's human capital stock, and thus contained...

This paper attempts to provide a critical measure of downside risk and severity for global output by applying the Value at Risk approach to four country groups in the world as a 'portfolio'. Global output downside risk, measured by global Growth at Risk (GaR), estimates the worst possible growth...