We develop a small-scale dynamic factor model for the Swiss economy allowing for non-linearities by means of a two-state Markov-chain. The selection of an appropriate set of indicators utilizes a combinatorial algorithm. The model's forecasting performance is as good as that of peers with richer...

This chapter surveys the recent literature on output forecasting, and examines the real-time forecasting ability of several models for U.S. output growth. In particular, it evaluates the accuracy of short-term forecasts of linear and nonlinear structural and reduced-form models, and judgmental...