Parliamentary elections. Based on daily data during the sample period January 1985 through September 2009, a univariate GARCH model … and change in returns relative to the previous day's returns during election periods. However, there exists strong … evidence for upward movement of the volatility of returns around both Presidential and Parliamentary elections. Furthermore …

The paper provides evidence for the existence of a midterm election effect. By examining the quarterly total returns on … quarter of a midterm election year and the following two quarters. This compounds to nearly 25% in those three quarters … year of a presidential term effect is weaker than the examined midterm election effect …

This paper analyzes stock market reactions to election polls. Stock markets anticipate the impact of events on future … cash flows. Current values depend on future cash flows and risk prospects. We posit that election polls are indications of … the political platforms that are expected to win elections. Given the traditional philosophical differences between the …