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Conditional yield skewness is an important summary statistic of the state of the economy. It exhibits pronounced … curve. Most importantly, variation in yield skewness has substantial forecasting power for future bond excess returns, high … COVID pandemic did not disrupt these relations: historically high skewness correctly anticipated the run-up in long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012547050
The conditional skewness of Treasury yields is an important indicator of the risks to the macroeconomic outlook …. Positive skewness signals upside risk to interest rates during periods of accommodative monetary policy and an upward …-sloping yield curve, and vice versa. Skewness has substantial predictive power for future bond excess returns, high …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014258498
Conditional yield skewness is an important summary statistic of the state of the economy. It exhibits pronounced … curve. Most importantly, variation in yield skewness has substantial forecasting power for future bond excess returns, high … COVID pandemic did not disrupt these relations: historically high skewness correctly anticipated the run-up in long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013222193
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012544932
Conditional yield skewness is an important summary statistic of the state of the economy. It exhibits pronounced … curve. Most importantly, variation in yield skewness has substantial forecasting power for future bond excess returns, high … COVID pandemic did not disrupt these relations: historically high skewness correctly anticipated the run-up in long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012588480
Conditional yield skewness is an important summary statistic of the state of the economy. It exhibits pronounced … curve. Most importantly, variation in yield skewness has substantial forecasting power for future bond excess returns, high … COVID pandemic did not disrupt these relations: historically high skewness correctly anticipated the run-up in long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012599237
The short-term interest rate is the main driver of the Commonwealth of Australia government bonds' nominal yields. This paper empirically models the dynamics of government bonds' nominal yields using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. Keynes held that the central bank exerts...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011890462
This paper analyzes the joint dynamic processes of macroeconomic and monetary variables and bond yields in China. We show that macroeconomic variables as well as monetary policy variables have a significant impact on two factors that capture the variation in yields. An increase in the inflation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013158647
We analyze optimal monetary policy and its implications for asset prices, when aggregate demand has inertia and responds to asset prices with a lag. If there is a negative output gap, the central bank optimally overshoots aggregate asset prices (asset prices are initially pushed above their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013093040
This paper examines whether the ECB's Quantitative Easing (QE) policy is causing government bond prices to deviate from their fundamental value. We use a recent advance in the methodology to measure exuberant price behavior in financial time series introduced by Phillips et al. (2015). We extend...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011715916