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of GDP growth in Ukraine. We applied CSA and PCA approaches to construct indices of these partitions. We further derived … GDP growth distributions and explored their behavior under different scenarios. Results from the model with PCA indices … inverse regardless of quantile of GDP distribution. Moreover, we found that the financial conditions index has the largest …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012606379
literature to analyse the real convergence, on the dynamics of GDP per capita expressed in case of EU by PPS (Purchasing Power … country or group of countries the dynamics of the ratio between the individual level of GDP per capita and the average EU GDP … per capita. Thus we evaluate how the position of a country it was changed relative to the average level in EU of GDP per …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011866850
Consumers' expected income growth declined significantly during the Great Recession. It was the most severe drop ever observed in these data, and expectations have not yet fully recovered. Furthermore, this article shows that expected income growth is a strong predictor of actual future income...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013060018
This paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty around point forecasts for GDP, inflation and house prices …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014313751
, TARCH, NARCH, APARCH, EGARCH) to analyze quarterly time series of GDP and Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross … Literature, Limitations and Future Research, Gretl Scripts]. Additionally, I discovered a unique interaction between GDP and …, GDP responded positively and very significantly (0.00248) to GCEGI, while GCEGI reacted positively but not too …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012904559
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012813838
In this paper, the authors develop a new tool to improve the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in the euro area … usefulness of a wide range of indicators in predicting short-term real GDP growth. In line with previous Bank studies, the … results suggest that the purchasing managers' index (PMI) is among the best-performing indicators to forecast real GDP growth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010403330
The paper provides probability estimates of the state of the GDP growth. A regime-switching model defines the … probability of the Greek GDP being in boom or recession. Then probit models extract the predictive information of a set of … explanatory (economic and financial) variables regarding the state of the GDP growth. A contemporaneous, as well as a lagged …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011312197
We evaluate conditional predictive densities for U.S. output growth and inflation using a number of commonly used forecasting models that rely on a large number of macroeconomic predictors. More specifically, we evaluate how well conditional predictive densities based on the commonly used...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013089933
This paper backtests a nowcast of Japan's real GDP growth. Its distinguishing features are use of genuine real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834028