The object of this paper is to produce non-parametric maximum likelihood estimates of forecast distributions in a general non-Gaussian, non-linear state space setting. The transition densities that define the evolution of the dynamic state process are represented in parametric form, but the...

Several authors have postulated econometric models for exchange rates restricted to lie within known target zones. However, it is not uncommon to observe exchange rate data with known limits that are not fully 'credible'; that is, where some of the observations fall outside the stated range. An...

A Bayesian approach to option pricing is presented in which posterior inference about the underlying returns process is conducted implicitly via observed option prices. A range of models allowing for conditional leptokurtosis, skewness and time-varying volatility in returns are considered, with...