policy. A critical dimension to poverty dynamics is vulnerability which conceptually pertains to the risk of future poverty … the measurement of poverty is ex post and thus, public interventions are directed at helping those who have been …. This study continued previous work that involves estimating the vulnerability level of households to income poverty using a …

We investigate the accuracy of ex ante assessments of vulnerability to income poverty using cross-sectional data and … vulnerability predictions is limited even when panel data are used. In part this low accuracy is due to low poverty incidence and … high mobility in and out of poverty. …

household consumed permanently at the poverty line. The results indicate that vulnerability is very sensitive to the time …Most measures of vulnerability are a-theoretic and essentially static. In this paper we use a stochastic Ramsey model … to find a household's optimal welfare and we measure vulnerability as the shortfall from the welfare attained if the …