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AutoRegression (VAR) and a fully structural Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, at forecasting financial returns. We … show that the DSGE model outperforms the unrestricted VAR at forecasting financial returns in the long term and generates …
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forecasting the daily S&P 500 index return quantile (Value-at-Risk or VaR is simply the negative of it), using high …
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