We estimate how US monetary policies, namely the current fed funds rate, forward guidance, and large-scale asset purchases, affect inflation. The effect of large-scale asset purchases on inflation is found to be much smaller than the other policies and can have the opposite sign in the short...

This paper develops a simple estimator to identify structural shocks in vector autoregressions (VARs) by using a proxy variable that is correlated with the structural shock of interest but uncorrelated with other structural shocks. When the proxy variable is weak, modeled as local to zero, the...

This paper presents some preliminary results of a study investigating the effect of telecare on the length of stay in hospital using linked administrative health and social care data in Scotland. We make various assumptions about the probability distribution of the outcome measure and formulate...

In empirical macroeconomics, proxy structural vector autoregressive models (SVARs) have become a prominent path towards detecting monetary policy (MP) shocks. However, in practice, the merits of proxy SVARs depend on the relevance and exogeneity of the instrumental information employed. Our...

We propose System Projections with Instrumental Variables (SP-IV) to estimate dynamic structural relationships. SP-IV replaces lag sequences of instruments in traditional IV with lead sequences of endogenous variables. SP-IV allows the inclusion of controls to weaken exogeneity requirements, can...

We provide a justification for why, and when, endogeneity will not cause bias in the interpretation of the coefficients in a regression model. This technique can be a viable alternative to, or even used alongside, the instrumental variable method. We show that when performing any comparative...

We demonstrate the use of comparative studies to resolve endogeneity issues. We provide a simple way to statistically test the corresponding condition which can help to ascertain that endogeneity is not posing any issues in a regression analysis. We give a step by step guide that can be...

We formulate a price discovery model in which the price discovery measures vary either locally, say, for instance, at intervals of 30 minutes or at a daily frequency. Given the empirical and theoretical evidence that price discovery measures relate to highly persistent fundamentals, we adopt a...

It is well known that Local Projections (LP) residuals are autocorrelated. Conventional wisdom says that LP have to be estimated by OLS and that GLS is not possible because the autocorrelation process is unknown and/or because the GLS estimator would be inconsistent. I show that the...