We develop a new methodology to measure conditional dependency between time series each driven by complicated marginal distributions. We achieve this by using copula functions that link marginal distributions, and by expressing the parameter of the copula as a function of predetermined...

"We evaluate how departure from normality may affect the allocation of assets. A Taylor series expansion of the expected utility allows to focus on certain moments and to compute the optimal portfolio allocation numerically. A decisive advantage of this approach is that it remains operational...

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve is at the center of two raging empirical debates. First, how can purely forward looking pricing account for the observed persistence in aggregate inflation. Second, price-setting responds to movements in marginal costs, which should therefore be the driving force...

It is well known that strategies that allow investors to allocate their wealth using return and volatility forecasts, the use of which are termed market and volatility timing, are of significant value. In this paper, we show that distribution timing, defined here as the ability to use forecasts...