National Council of Real Estate Fiduciaries multiple listing service level cash flows and panels of capitalization rates for industrial, office and retail properties over the last two decades are examined in this study. Real NOI 5-year future growth is shown to be negatively related to...

Historic analysis of the inflation hedging properties of stocks has produced anomalous results, with stocks often appearing to offer a perverse hedge against inflation. This has been attributed to the impact of real and monetary shocks to the economy, which influence both inflation and asset...

Periodic sharp sustained increases and then reversals in asset prices lead many to posit irrational price bubbles. The general case for irrationality is that real asset prices simply have moved too much given the future real cash flows the assets are reasonably likely to produce. A corollary for...

This paper presents rent models for retail and office property in the U.K. Panel data are used covering 11 regions for 29 years, enabling us to overcome the limitations of a relatively short time series. We use an Error Correction Model (ECM) framework to estimate long run equilibrium...

The seminal study by Fama and MacBeth (1973) initiated a stream of papers testing for the cross-sectional relation between return and risk. The debate wether beta is a valid measure of risk has been renimated by Fama and French (1992) and subsequent studies. Rather than focusing on exogenous...

In this article, portfolio allocation strategies based on a threshold autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model (QTARCH) are constructed for the United States and the United Kingdom and compared to a conventional asset allocation. Our procedure is based on partitioning the historical...

Recent analyses have suggested the irrationality of investors in Australian and U.S. office properties. More specifically, investors have failed to raise capitalization rates sufficiently at rental cyclical peaks to account for the obvious mean reversion in real rents and thus have significantly...

Rental adjustment equations have been estimated for a quarter century. In the U.S., models have used the deviation of the actual vacancy rate from the natural rate as the main explanatory variable, while in the UK, drivers of the demand for space have dominated the estimation. The recent papers...

This study investigates the short term inflation hedging characteristics of U.K. real estate compared to other U.K. investments. It considers not only total returns but also changes in income and changes in capital values. The analyses are undertaken using annual and quarterly data. Stocks,...

In this paper, cluster analytical techniques are used to examine dimensions of diversification in UK commercial property markets. A variety of techniques are used on a dataset which contains property returns for 156 property markets (67 retail locations, 64 office locations and 25 industrial...