The current paper analyzes the importance and potentials of the tourism sector for economic development. It is divided into four major parts. After a short introduction, section two presents some theoretical insights into the topic of economic development. Commenting on the most relevant...

La mayor parte de la evidencia empírica sobre el efecto de Fisher o la hipótesisde Fisher sostiene que la relación entre la tasa de inflación y la tasa de interés nominaldebe ser igual a uno. Este artículo analiza la relación entre la tasa de interés nominaly la tasa de inflación para...

I study the diffusion process of permanent disinflationary shocks in the Mexican economy using disaggregated price data for 283 goods across 46 cities in the period 1995-2012. I first show that the distribution of shocks shows considerable heterogeneity, with more than 80% of all cases having...

Unlike in Asia, the manufacturing sector has not (yet) become a driver of structural change in Africa. One common explanation is that the natural resource-focus of many African economies leads to Dutch disease effects. To test this argument for the case of newly found oil in Ghana we develop a...

We extend the random level shift (RLS) model of Lu and Perron (2010) to the volatility of asset prices, which consists of a short memory process and a random level shift component. Motivated by empirical features, (a) we specify a time-varying probability of shifts as a function of large...

We evaluate conditional predictive densities for US output growth and inflation using a number of commonly-used forecasting models that rely on large numbers of macroeconomic predictors. More specifically, we evaluate how well conditional predictive densities based on the commonly-used normality...

Many papers which have estimated models with forward looking expectations have reported that the magnitude of the coefficients of the expectations term is very large when compared with the effects coming from past dynamics. This has sometimes been regarded as implausible and led to the feeling...

This paper analysis the vulnerability of the OECD member states to external shocks by estimating the degree of asymmetric effects from positive and negative shocks. We use asymmetric conditional heteroscedasticity models with endogenously determined regime changes in a context of progressive...

Poland has historically demonstrated exceptional resiliency in the face of change. This paper examines how Poland coped with huge structural realignments from the rise of Solidarity until the present, seeking to provide an objective analysis of Poland’s evolution of trade structures while it...

Many theories link urbanization with industrialization; in particular, with the production of tradable (and typically manufactured) goods. We document that the expected relationship between urbanization and the level of industrialization is not present in a sample of developing economies. The...