In this paper, we approached the concept of real estate bubble, analyzing the risk its bursting could generate for the Chilean financial market. Specifically, we analyzed the relationship between real housing prices, the economic activity index, and mortgage interest rates denominated in...

Purpose: This paper combines the objective information of six mixed-frequency partial-activity indicators with assumptions or beliefs (called priors) regarding the distribution of the parameters that approximate the state of the construction activity cycle. Thus, this paper uses Bayesian...

The copper price is a leading indicator of real estate activity. Price increases are statistically related to increasing numbers of applications for residential building permits. However, this reciprocity is not instantaneous as permit numbers lag price rises by 9 to 10 months. This dynamic is...

In this paper, an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model with threshold generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (TGARCH) innovations is considered to model Chilean economic uncertainty time series. Uncertainty is measured through the Business Confidence Index (BCI) and...

The copper price is a leading indicator of real estate activity. Price increases are statistically related to increasing numbers of applications for residential building permits. However, this reciprocity is not instantaneous as permit numbers lag price rises by 9 to 10 months. This dynamic is...

In this paper, an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model with threshold generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (TGARCH) innovations is considered to model Chilean economic uncertainty time series. Uncertainty is measured through the Business Confidence Index (BCI) and...