Since its announcement made on Sept. 6, 2011, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has been pursuing the goal of a minimum EUR/CHF exchange rate of 1.20, promising to intervene on currency markets to prevent the exchange rate from falling below this level. We use a compound option pricing approach to...

For most events, risk-neutral outcome probabilities are identical across numeraire currencies. Some events, however, such as elections or referendums, may have an impact on exchange rates. This implies numeraire dependence in risk-neutral outcome probabilities, which leads to different state...

Betting quotes provide valuable information on market-implied probabilities for outcomes of events like elections or referendums, which may have an impact on exchange rates. We generate exchange rate forecasts around such events based on a model that combines risk-neutral event probabilities...

We present an efficient numerical method to determine optimal portfolio strategies under time- and state-dependent drift and proportional transaction costs. This scenario arises when investors have behavioral biases or the actual drift is unknown and needs to be estimated. The numerical method...

In Denmark many homeowners/borrowers manage their debt very actively. The individual borrower faces a number of non-trivial decisions. He has to decide whether to use adjustable rate loans where the debt is refinanced on a yearly basis or the more traditional fixed rate 20- or 30-year annuities...

In this paper the empirical performance of alternative models for barrier option valuation and risk management is studied. Five commonly used models are compared: the Black-Scholes model, the constant elasticity of variance model, the Heston stochastic volatility model, the Merton jump-diffusion...