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Consensus Economics survey data on GDP growth, inflation, and short-term interest rates to approximate macroeconomic … priced in the cross section and drive the size and value premium, whereas inflation expectations serve as robust predictors …
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Does the yield curve have the ability to predict output and recessions? At some times and in certain places, of course! But many details are matters of dispute: When and where does the yield curve predict successfully, which aspects of the curve matter most, and which economic forces account for...
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We revisit the concept of the cost of hedging inflation risks put forward in Bodie (1976). When doing so, we employ a … kernel-based methods discussed in Giraitis et al. (2018), but relying on the estimation approach put forward in Morf et al …-varying compensation for expected and unexpected inflation shocks embedded in the sovereign bond yields of Germany, France, Japan and the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842461
by modelling the time-varying dynamics of asset returns and inflation, and then estimating the cost of hedging in ation … inflation risks are not necessarily reduced with the inclusion of real estate assets in the minimum variance portfolio. Our … investors for holding the less attractive inflation-linked debt asset. …
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and implied volatility of T-bonds and survey forecasts of GDP growth and inflation. We find relatively stable inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011877284
information content of the term structure of interest rates about future inflation. The empirical results of these studies … structure of interest rates only contains limited information about future inflation and that the relationship between the term … structure of interest rates and future inflation may not be stable over time. In this paper an extension of the Mishkin model …
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