Prior to the financial crisis mortgage securitization models increased in sophistication as did products built to insure against losses. Layers of complexity formed upon a foundation that could not support it and as the foundation crumbled the housing market followed. That foundation was the...

Previous conjoint choice design construction procedures have produced a single design that is administered to all subjects. This paper proposes to construct a limited set of different designs. The designs are constructed in a Bayesian fashion, taking into account prior uncertainty about the...

This paper develops optimal estimation of a potentially non-differentiable functional Γβ of a regular parameter β, when Γ satisfies certain conditions. Primary examples are min or max functionals that frequently appear in the analysis of partially identified models. This paper investigates...

This paper applies specific quantitative methods to demonstrate a general theoretical model for measuring strategic performance. The theoretical concepts are universal and measurable for all types of strategic activity by applying the methodology through alternative quantitative analytical...

The large number of financial crises in emerging markets over the past ten years has left many observers, both from academia and financial institutions, puzzled by an apparent lack of homogenous causal relations between endogenous economic variables and the bursting of large financial shocks....

Volatility forecasts play a central role among equity risk measures. Besides traditional statistical models, modern forecasting techniques, based on machine learning, can readily be employed when treating volatility as a univariate, daily time-series. However, econometric studies have shown that...

Humans play important roles in the process of quantifying uncertainty. The participation of humans in this important exercise opens the process to behavioral biases. In this paper, we examine the different types of biases that may occur when quantifying uncertainty using a process-oriented...

This paper attempts to provide a decision-theoretic foundation for the measurement of economic tail risk, which is not only closely related to utility theory but also relevant to statistical model uncertainty. The main result is that the only risk measures that satisfy a set of economic axioms...

We revisit the comparison of mathematical programming with equilibrium constraints (MPEC) and nested fixed point (NFXP) algorithms for estimating structural dynamic models by Su and Judd (SJ, 2012). They used an inefficient version of the nested fixed point algorithm that relies on successive...

We present a novel variant of decision making based on the mathematical theory of separable Hilbert spaces. This mathematical structure captures the effect of superposition of composite prospects, including many incorporated intentions, which allows us to describe a variety of interesting...