We use daily transactional ledger data from the Bank of England's Archive to test whether and to what extent the Bank of England during the mid-nineteenth century adhered to Walter Bagehot's rule that a central bank in a financial crisis should lend cash freely at a high interest rate in...

We use daily transactional ledger data from the Bank of England's Archive to test whether and to what extent the Bank of England during the mid-nineteenth century adhered to Walter Bagehot's rule that a central bank in a financial crisis should lend cash freely at a high interest rate in...

We use daily transactional ledger data from the Bank of England's Archive to test whether and to what extent the Bank of England during the mid-nineteenth century adhered to Walter Bagehot's rule that a central bank in a financial crisis should lend cash freely at a penalty rate in exchange for...

It is well known that quantitative credit restrictions, rather than Bagehot-style ‘free lending' constituted the standard response to financial crises in the early days of central banking. But why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises? In...

Central bank balance sheets swelled in size in response to the financial crisis of 2007-09. In this article we discuss what makes them different from the balance sheets of other institutions, how they've been used in the past, and how they might evolve in the future as means to implement novel...

We develop early warning models for financial crisis prediction using machine learning techniques on macrofinancial data for 17 countries over 1870–2016. Machine learning models mostly outperform logistic regression in out-of-sample predictions and forecasting. We identify economic drivers of...