The statistical estimate of the branching ratio η of the Hawkes model, when fitted to windows of mid-price changes, has been reported to approach criticality (η = 1) as the fitting window becomes large. In this study -- using price changes from the EUR/USD currency pair traded on the...

While the actions of economists and politicians can be influenced by facts, statistics or empirical predictions, narratives are becoming an increasingly important factor for the decision making in the field of economics and politics. Evaluating such narratives not at selective points in time but...