With China''s share in global trade increasing rapidly, some argued in 2002-03 that China was exporting deflation to other countries as it was dumping cheap goods in mature markets. Later, others argued that China was sucking in commodities and thus causing sharp increases in global prices. The...

With China's share in global trade increasing rapidly, some argued in 2002-2003 that China was exporting deflation to other countries as it was dumping cheap goods in mature markets. Later, others argued that China was sucking in commodities and thus causing sharp increases in global prices. The...

With China's share in global trade increasing rapidly, some argued in 2002-03 that China was exporting deflation to other countries as it was dumping cheap goods in mature markets. Later, others argued that China was sucking in commodities and thus causing sharp increases in global prices. The...

What might interest rate liberalization do to intermediation and the cost of capital in China? China's most binding interest rate control is a ceiling on the deposit rate, although lending rates are also regulated. Through case studies and model-based simulations, we find that liberalization...

Chinese banks generate large profits and have relatively low nonperforming loans. However, good financial performance does not, in itself, guarantee that banks efficiently intermediate the economy''s financial resources. This paper first examines how efficient Chinese banks are in financial...

An equilibrium exchange rate is here defined as the level that is consistent with simultaneous internal and external balances as specified in Montiel (1996). Exogenous “fundamental” variables determining these balances are identified. Along the lines of Edwards (1994), a reduced form is...

We use past forecast errors to construct confidence intervals around Australian Government Budget forecasts of key economic and fiscal variables. These confidence intervals provide an indication of the extent of uncertainty around the point estimate forecasts presented in the Budget.

This paper outlines a methodology for forecasting the components of household final consumption expenditure, which is necessary in order to forecast revenue col- lections from a number of different taxes. A forecast combination approach using autoregressive models, regressions on relative prices...