There is no consensus on whether macroeconomic fundamentals have any predictive power for bond risk premia, either unconditionally or conditionally over bond yields. Using Adaptive Group LASSO, a machine learning algorithm, we are able to construct a new, parsimonious macro variable that is...

The purpose of this study is to suggest a new framework that we call the CIR#, which allows forecasting interest rates from observed financial market data even when rates are negative. In doing so, we have the objective is to maintain the market volatility structure as well as the analytical...

The purpose of this paper is to model interest rates from observed financial market data through a new approach to the Cox–Ingersoll–Ross (CIR) model. This model is popular among financial institutions mainly because it is a rather simple (uni-factorial) and better model than the former...

The Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) technique recovers a finite second order random variable exploiting suitable linear combinations of orthogonal polynomials which are functions of a given stochastic quantity $\xi$, hence acting as a kind of random basis. The PCE methodology has been developed...

Procyclical assets tend to rise in value when the economy is expanding and fall with the advent of a recession. Countercyclical assets are instead negatively correlated with the state of the economy. Despite the use of optimization methods, hedging, and ad hoc rebalancing techniques most...

There is strong empirical evidence that long-term interest rates contain a time-varying risk premium. Options may contain valuable information about this risk premium because their prices are sensitive to the underlying interest rates. We use the joint time-series of swap rates and interest rate...

This paper provides new estimates of the impact of monetary policy actions and macroeconomic news on the term structure of nominal interest rates. The key novelty is to parsimoniously capture the impact of news on all interest rates using a simple no-arbitrage model. The different types of news...

The recent macro-finance yield curve literature has focused on the extraction of a reliable measure of term premia (on long-term bonds) and on their relevant relationship with future economic activity (GDP), because of the practical implications of this relationship for the conduct of the...

This paper explores the transmission of credit conditions into the real economy. Specifically, I examine the forecasting power of the term structure of credit spreads for future GDP growth. I find that the whole term structure of credit spreads has predictive power, while the term structure of...

The paper shows how any introduction of interest payments for intra-day holdings of local and foreign currency reserves could have the unexpected side-effect of destabilising and increasing volatility in associated exchange rates