Sentiment indices, such as measures of consumer confidence, are often discussed as potential indicators of future investment, consumption and growth. However, documenting a causal relationship between consumer confidence and output — and understanding the precise nature of the relationship —...

We explore both theoretically and experimentally how final prices and security holdings in an asset market influence and forecast behavior and outcomes in an affiliated coordination game. We vary the incentives from the market relative to payoffs from the game, the number of players in a group,...

We explore both theoretically and experimentally how final prices and security holdings in an asset market influence and forecast behavior and outcomes in an affiliated coordination game. We vary the incentives from the market relative to payoffs from the game, the number of players in a group,...

We explore the relationship between outcomes in a coordination game and a pre-play asset market where asset values are determined by outcomes in the subsequent coordination game. Across two experiments, we vary the payoffs from the market relative to the game, the degree of interdependence in...

Beliefs about collective outcomes, such as economic growth or firm profitability, play an important role in many contexts. We study biases in the formation of such beliefs. Specifically, we explore whether over-optimism and self-serving biases in information processing—documented for beliefs...

Beliefs about collective outcomes, such as economic growth or firm profitability, play an important role in many contexts. We study biases in the formation of such beliefs. Specifically, we explore whether over-optimism and self-serving biases in information processing—documented for beliefs...

Beliefs about collective outcomes, such as economic growth or firm profitability, play an important role in many contexts. We study biases in the formation of such beliefs. Specifically, we explore whether over-optimism and self-serving biases in information processing—documented for beliefs...