This paper analyzes dynamic equilibrium risk sharing contracts between profit-maximizing intermediaries and a large pool of ex-ante identical agents that face idiosyncratic income uncertainty that makes them heterogeneous ex-post. In any given period, after having observed her income, the agent...

A State Price Density (SPD) is the density function of a risk neutral equivalent martingale measure for option pricing, and is indispensible for exotic option pricing and portfolio risk management. Many approaches have been proposed in the last two decades to calibrate a SPD using financial...

In this paper we investigate price and volatility risk originating in linkages between energy and agricultural commodity prices in Germany and study their dynamics over time. We propose an econometric approach to quantify the volatility and correlation risk structure, which has a large impact...

We analyze a consistent two-factor model for pricing temperature derivatives that incorporates the forward looking information available in the market by specifying a model for the dynamics of the complete meteorological forecast curve. The two-factor model is a generalization of the...

Electricity load forecasts are an integral part of many decision-making processes in the electricity market. However, most literature on electricity load forecasting concentrates on deterministic forecasts, neglecting possibly important information about uncertainty. A more complete picture of...

In this paper we adapt a dynamic discrete choice model to examine the aggregated demand for single- and multi-year crop insurance contracts. We show that in a competitive insurance market with heterogeneous risk averse farmers, there is simultaneous demand for both insurance contracts. Moreover,...

We study the welfare effects of offering choice over coverage levels––“vertical choice”––in regulated health insurance markets. Though the efficient level of coverage, which trades off the value of risk protection and the social cost from moral hazard, likely varies across consumers,...

Using data on balance sheets of both financial and nonfinancial sectors of the economy, we use a "demand system" approach to study how lender composition and willingness to provide credit affect the relationship between credit expansions and real activity. A key advantage of jointly modeling the...

We present a model for assessing how the UK's system of market-based finance — an increasingly important source of credit to the real economy since the financial crisis — might behave under stress. The core of this model is a set of representative agents, which correspond to key sectors of...

Rainfall is an important source of covariate shock in developing countries. Insurance against a rainfall index has, therefore, held much promise as a formal insurance product to protect the livelihoods of poor farmers. But how good is rainfall as a measure of covariate shocks? The imperfect...