This paper examines what factors move US and European stock and bond markets, extending earlier work by Campbell and Ammer (1993). Inflation news is incorporated into the stock and bond decomposition and explicit attention is given to different horizons over which expectations are formed....

Companies in many countries have designated shares restricted to locals and otherwise identical unrestricted shares available to foreigners. With the ever-increasing demand for international portfolio investments, these foreign ownership restrictions typically lead to large price premiums for...

This paper studies the returns from investing in index options. Previous research documents significant average option returns, large CAPM alphas, and high Sharpe ratios, and concludes that put options are mispriced. We propose an alternative approach to evaluate the significance of option...

This Paper reinterprets standard axioms in choice theory to introduce the concepts of ‘belief dependent’ utility functions and aversion to ‘state-uncertainty’. It shows that this type of preference helps to explain the various stylized facts of asset returns, including a high equity risk...

Recent research in empirical finance has documented that expected excess returns on bonds and stocks, real interest rates, and risk shift over time in predictable ways. Furthermore, these shifts tend to persist over long periods of time. In this paper we propose an empirical model that is able...

This paper examines the optimal consumption and portfolio choice problem of long-horizon investors who have access to a riskless asset with constant return and a risky asset (‘stocks’) with constant expected return and time varying precision – the reciprocal of volatility. Markets are...

A simple test of inflation target credibility is constructed by subtracting the maximum and minimum inflation rates consistent with the inflation targets from the yields to maturity on nominal bonds. This results in a target-consistent range of real yields on nominal bonds. If expected real...

This article studies the dynamic behaviour of security prices in the presence of investors’ heterogeneous beliefs. We provide a tractable continuous-time pure-exchange model and highlight the mechanism through which investors’ differences of opinion enter into security prices. In the...