The primary reasons for credit card charge-off are delinquency and bankruptcy. In this paper, we develop a dependent competing risks model to investigate the determinants of time to delinquency and time to bankruptcy jointly, and to investigate their interdependence. Our results show that...

In this paper, we examine idiosyncratic and systematic distress predictors for small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) in Europe over the period 2000-2009. We find that SMEs across European regions are vulnerable to common idiosyncratic factors but systematic factors vary. Moreover, systematic...

Poor corporate governance can damage the interests of shareholders, and may lead to company collapse. Previous studies in credit risk prediction provide no consensus as to which and how corporate governance variables determine bankruptcy. This paper is the first to apply a discrete time hazard...

Spanish Abstract: Tradicionalmente, los concursos de acreedores en España han sido procedimientos largos y costosos, que casi siempre terminaban en la liquidación de la empresa concursada (95 %). Estas disfuncionalidades quedaron en evidencia con el fuerte aumento de los concursos de...

We estimate the causal impact of restructuring aid granted by the European Commission between 2003 and 2012 on the survival and financial viability of aided firms. Using a comprehensive dataset we find that restructuring aid increases a firm's average survival time by 8 to 15 years and decreases...

In this paper we model the expected loss over multi-year horizons. Investors usually have only incomplete information about the true state of a firm. To model this form of unobservable heterogeneity, we introduce a latent non-negative random variable into the model specification of the...

This paper investigates the forecasting accuracy of bankruptcy hazard rate models for U.S. companies over the time period 1962 - 1999 using both yearly and monthly observation intervals. The contribution of this paper is multiple-fold. One, using an expanded bankruptcy database we validate the...

We use a time-dependent Cox regression model with dynamic variables to estimate survival probabilities and make dynamic financial distress predictions for a sample of Australian firms listed on the Australian Securities Exchange from 1989 to 2006. This is one of the first studies to apply...

We investigate the duration of bad loans for a unique data set of sole proprietorships in Italy, finding that bad loans for female firms last longer. However, this result is mainly due to the fact that loans granted to female firms are less frequently written off than those to male ones,...

We propose a general class of flexible models for longitudinal data with special emphasis on discrete-time survival data. The model is a finite mixture model where the subjects are allowed to move between components through time. The time-varying probabilities of component memberships is modeled...