This paper reviews literature on the empirical relationship between vulnerabilities in the financial system and the macroeconomy, and how monetary policy affects that connection. Financial vulnerabilities build up over time, with both risk appetite and risk taking rising during economic...

We document capital misallocation in the U.S. investment-grade (IG) corporate bond market, driven by quantitative easing (QE). Prospective fallen angels - risky firms just above the IG rating cutoff-enjoyed subsidized bond financing since 2009, especially when the scale of QE purchases peaked...

As the economic disruptions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic increased in March 2020, there was a global dash-for-cash by investors. This selling pressure occurred across advanced sovereign bond markets and caused a deterioration in market functioning, leading to central bank interventions....

Foreign investors' changing appetite for risk-taking has been shown to be a key determinant of the global financial cycle. Such fluctuations in risk sentiment also correlate with the dynamics of uncovered interest parity (UIP) premia, capital flows, and exchange rates. To understand how these...

This paper shows that rising top income shares affect job creation at firms of different sizes. High-income households save relatively more in stocks and bonds, and less in bank deposits. We propose that a higher income share of top earners therefore channels funds to large firms, but tightens...

Before the era of large central bank balance sheets, banks relied on incoming payments to fund outgoing payments in order to conserve scarce liquidity. Even in the era of large central bank balance sheets, rather than funding payments with abundant reserve balances, we show that outgoing...

In this paper we highlight a new channel through which dollar fluctuations can become a self-fulfilling pro-cyclical force. We call this mechanism "Imperial Circle" as it makes the dollar the dominant macroeconomic variable in the context of the current international monetary system. At the core...

We document the real-time forecasting performance for output and inflation of the New York Fed dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model since 2011. We find the DSGE's accuracy to be comparable to that of private forecasters before Covid, but somewhat worse thereafter.

This paper investigates the goals, costs, and benefits of official-sector purchases of government securities for the purpose of restoring market functionality. We explore the design of market-function purchase programs, including their communication, triggers, operational protocols, exit, and...

Global liquidity refers to the volumes of financial flows-largely intermediated through global banks and non-bank financial institutions-that can move at relatively high frequencies across borders. The amplitude of responses to global conditions like risk sentiment, discussed in the context of...