We find that option-implied information such as forward-looking variance, skewness and the variance risk premium are sensitive to the way the volatility surface is constructed. For some state-of-the-art volatility surfaces, the differences are economically surprisingly large and lead to...

We decompose the term structure of expected equity returns into (1) the real short rate, (2) a premium for holding real long-term bonds, or the real duration premium, the excess returns of nominal long-term bonds over real bonds which reflects (3) expected inflation and (4) inflation risk, and...

We decompose the term structure of expected equity returns into (1) the real short rate, (2) a premium for holding real long-term bonds, or the real duration premium, the excess returns of nominal long-term bonds over real bonds which reflects (3) expected inflation and (4) inflation risk, and...

We document that fear about misspecified economic and central bank policies explain 45% of variations in bond option implied volatilities and interest rate volatilities. We endogenize this empirical pattern with a parsimonious equilibrium asset pricing model. In equilibrium, volatility is...

Between 37% and 75% of quarterly variations in the U.S. aggregate logarithmic price-dividend ratio are related to economic information that is embedded in the real risk-free rate. Only one hidden factor is required to explain more than 80\% of these common variations. Surprisingly, standard...

We document economically and statistically large 24h pre-ECB announcement re- turns in European equity. For the overall market the respective annual premium (2010 – 2015) was over 6% (Sharpe ratio of 1.5). We show that the pre-ECB return is mainly driven by periods of high uncertainty during...

We construct a model-free term structure of dividend risk premiums from option prices and aggregate analyst forecasts. Applying the method to 2004-2017 U.S. data, we find it is hump-shaped. Its level increases in business cycle contractions and decreases during expansions. The on average...

We find that option-implied information such as forward-looking variance, skewness and the variance risk premium are sensitive to the way the volatility surface is constructed. For some state-of-the-art volatility surfaces, the differences are economically surprisingly large and lead to...