This paper studies the effects of predictability on the earnings-returns relation for individual firms and for the aggregate. We demonstrate that prices better anticipate earnings growth at the aggregate level than at the firm level, which implies that random-walk models are inappropriate for...

In an efficient capital market, asset prices vary when investors change their expectations about cash flows, discount rates, or both. Using dividends to measure cash flows, previous research shows that the aggregate dividend-price ratio varies due to changes in expected discount rates (returns)...

Previous studies document that market reactions to firm-level earnings news are stronger during good times than in bad times. We find that this result is driven by small firms. In fact, the market reaction to large firms' earnings news is weaker during economic expansions than contractions. We...

While aggregate earnings should affect aggregate stock returns, standard portfolio theory predicts that the cross-sectional dispersion in firm-level earnings per se would not affect aggregate stock returns. Nonetheless, this paper documents that cross-sectional earnings dispersion is positively...

This paper studies the effects of predictability on the earnings-returns relation for individual firms and for the aggregate. We demonstrate that prices better anticipate earnings growth at the aggregate level than at the firm level, which implies that random-walk models are inappropriate for...

In an efficient market, prices should vary only if investors change their expectations about cash flows, discount factors, or both. Prior research showed that dividend yield varies mostly due to variation in expected returns, and contains little information about cash flow. This literature...

We investigate the change in the aggregate earnings-returns relation from negative to positive. We first identify a gradual structural break around the second quarter of 1991. We then find evidence of three contributing factors to the change in the relation. They are: i) an increase in the...

This paper studies the relation between aggregate stock returns and contemporaneous and future cross-sectional earnings dispersion. We hypothesize that increases in expected earnings dispersion signal increases in uncertainty and increases in unemployment, thereby causing expected returns to...

This study predicts and finds that the interaction of firm-level and aggregate-level shocks explains a significant portion of shocks to macroeconomic activity. Specifically, we hypothesize that the relation between uncertainty and economic growth is most pronounced when both firm-level and...

This paper studies whether illiquidity affects the predictability of fundamental valuation variables. Firm-level, cross-sectional analyses show that returns of illiquid stocks contain less information about their firm's future earnings growth compared to those of more liquid stocks. A natural...