We study optimal monetary policy during temporary supply contractions when aggregate demand has inertia and expansionary policy is constrained. In this environment, it is optimal to run the economy hot until supply recovers. Positive output gaps in the low-supply phase lessen the negative output...

This note shows that non-U.S. yield curves contain information about future U.S. recessions and economic activity. Using quarterly data from 1979-2021, a foreign term spread constructed from the bond yields of G-7 constituents is included in regressions of U.S. recession risk and U.S. real GDP...

Excess sensitivity—the significant effects of monetary policy on long-term interest rates—is a well-known puzzle. This paper documents excess sensitivity as being more pronounced in response to monetary policy easing than monetary tightening—the asymmetric excess-sensitivity puzzle. A...

We estimate the time-varying distribution of aggregate supply (AS) and aggregate demand (AD) shocks defined in the Keynesian tradition. In modeling the time variation in higher order moments, we distinguish between traditional Gaussian uncertainty and "bad" uncertainty, associated with negative...

Central banks (the Fed) and markets (the market) often disagree about the path of interest rates. We develop a model where these different views stem from disagreements between the Fed and the market about future aggregate demand. We then study the implications of these disagreements for...

Stock market price/earnings ratios should be influenced by demography. Since demography is predictable, stock returns should be as well. We provide a simple stochastic OLG model with a cyclical structure which generates cyclical P/E ratios. We calibrate the model to roughly fit the cyclical...

This paper develops and estimates an equilibrium model which investigates the relationship between the term structure of interest rates, inflation and GDP growth. The model accounts for non-neutral effects of inflation, so that real and monetary variables are interrelated and jointly influence...

This paper develops a general equilibrium model for a representative agent, production economy with stochastic internal habit formation. The model describes a scale-independent economy, with a unique stochastic investment opportunity set. Local correlation between the stochastic interest rate...

Changes in nominal interest rates must be due to either movements in real interest rates or expected inflation, or both. We develop a term structure model with regime switches, time-varying prices of risk and inflation to identify these components of the nominal yield curve. We find that the...

This paper explains the emergence of liquidity traps in the aftermath of large-scale financial crises. It establishes a link between the equity capital of the corporate sector and the risk-free interest rate. When equity capital falls, the risk-free interest rate declines because bonds become...