The banding estimator of Bickel and Levina (2008a) and its tapering version of Cai, Zhang and Zhou (2010), are important high dimensional covariance estimators. Both estimators require choosing a band width parameter. We propose a band width selector for the banding covariance estimator by...

The three most popular univariate conditional volatility models are the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model of Engle (1982) and Bollerslev (1986), the GJR (or threshold GARCH) model of Glosten, Jagannathan and Runkle (1992), and the exponential GARCH (or...

The Heckman sample selection model relies on the assumption of normal and homoskedastic disturbances. However, before considering more general, alternative semiparametric models that do not need the normality assumption, it seems useful to test this assumption. Following Meijer and Wansbeek...

A fast method is developed for value-at-risk and expected shortfall prediction for univariate asset return time series exhibiting leptokurtosis, asymmetry and conditional heteroskedasticity. It is based on a GARCH-type process driven by noncentral <em>t</em> innovations. While the method involves the use...

In regression we can delete outliers based upon a preliminary estimator and re-estimate the parameters by least squares based upon the retained observations. We study the properties of an iteratively defined sequence of estimators based on this idea. We relate the sequence to the Huber-skip...

The purpose of the paper is to discuss ten things potential users should know about the limits of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) representation for estimating and forecasting time-varying conditional correlations. The reasons given for caution about the use of DCC include the...

Credible Granger-causality analysis appears to require post-sample inference, as it is well-known that in-sample fit can be a poor guide to actual forecasting effectiveness. However, post-sample model testing requires an often-consequential <em>a priori</em> partitioning of the data into an...

The recent volatile behaviour of U.K. inflation has been officially attributed to a sequence of “unusual” price changes, prompting renewed interest in the construction of measures of “core inflation”, from which such unusual price changes may be down-weighted or even excluded. This paper...

Polynomial specifications are widely used, not only in applied economics, but also in epidemiology, physics, political analysis and psychology, just to mention a few examples. In many cases, the data employed to estimate such specifications are time series that may exhibit stochastic...

Electricity spot prices are characterized by sudden large movements, followed a few days later by an equally large movement in the opposite direction. These phenomena are called spikes (upward movements) and drops (downward movements). Recent research has suggested that the dynamics of the...